BlackRock’s 2026 Global Outlook forecasts a world economy that is being reshaped by a handful of powerful structural forces, with artificial intelligence at the center of a “capital-intensive transformation” that could push financial, physical and geopolitical systems to new limits. The report argues that investors must prepare for an environment in which AI, debt growth and energy constraints collide, driving structural volatility across markets.
The BlackRock Investment Institute’s senior leaders describe AI as the dominant “mega force” of the coming decade, one that is propelling US equities to record highs while also increasing market concentration. According to the report summary on page 3, investors can “no longer avoid making a big call,” since broad-based diversification now masks active bets due to the sheer weight of AI-linked sectors.
AI spending becomes macroeconomic force
The authors emphasise that the scale of AI investment is unprecedented. Capital expenditure by major technology groups is expected to surge, with the report stating that “the micro is macro” because spending by a handful of firms is now large enough to influence global growth patterns. Yet the viability of such investment depends on whether future AI-related revenues can match expectations, a question the report identifies as a critical uncertainty for 2026.
Energy availability is another potential bottleneck. The Outlook notes that AI’s expansion requires vast computing power and electricity, creating physical constraints that could slow deployment while simultaneously generating new opportunities in infrastructure and private markets.
Leverage rises as governments and companies borrow more
BlackRock warns that both governments and AI builders are entering a period of increased leverage. Public debt levels remain historically high following years of fiscal stimulus, and technology companies are borrowing heavily to front-load AI investments whose revenues may take years to materialise. This creates what the report describes as “a more levered financial system vulnerable to shocks,” including sudden spikes in bond yields triggered by policy tensions between inflation control and debt sustainability.
As a result, BlackRock remains tactically underweight long-term US Treasuries, highlighting potential instability in sovereign debt markets. Private credit and infrastructure financing are expected to benefit, as investors seek yield and companies look for alternative funding channels.
Traditional diversification no longer reliable
The firm also draws attention to what it calls a “diversification mirage.” On page 3, the Outlook warns that strategies which previously reduced risk may now be closely correlated with dominant mega forces, meaning portfolio diversification might fail during market stress. Investors should instead prepare a “plan B” and pivot quickly when conditions change, with a greater emphasis on idiosyncratic exposures in private markets.
Implications for Europe
For European policymakers and investors, the findings point to a narrowing window to adapt. Rising market concentration, accelerating AI investment and energy constraints will intersect with Europe’s own push toward digitalisation, payments reform and technological sovereignty. Digital euro debates, industrial policy and infrastructure funding gaps may all be influenced by the same global dynamics BlackRock describes.
As the eurozone prepares for regulatory updates on digital finance and continues its green-transition agenda, the 2026 investment landscape will test how effectively Europe can compete in a world driven by high-stakes technological spending and deep structural change.