Analysts at XWIN Research warn that Bitcoin could slide toward 60,000 dollars if the US Federal Reserve opts to leave interest rates unchanged in December. They describe the upcoming meeting as one of the most unpredictable in years, largely because the recent US government shutdown delayed key labour market reports and left policymakers with incomplete economic data.
Hopes for a rate cut have faded, and divisions within the Federal Reserve have become more visible. According to analysts, a steady rate environment would keep liquidity tight across financial markets and continue to suppress demand for risk assets. Periods of restrictive monetary policy typically reduce traders’ willingness to use leverage, which further limits crypto market momentum.
Stablecoin reserves point to latent demand
Even with macroeconomic headwinds, crypto exchanges now hold an unprecedented 72 billion dollars in stablecoin reserves. XWIN Research notes that similar conditions preceded several major Bitcoin rallies earlier in 2025. High levels of stablecoins suggest substantial capital is waiting on the sidelines, ready to enter the market once confidence improves.
These reserves help cap Bitcoin’s downside, providing a buffer against deeper declines. At the same time, they are not enough to drive a breakout as long as broader economic uncertainty persists. With liquidity constrained and rate expectations muted, Bitcoin is likely to remain range bound until the Federal Reserve’s policy direction becomes clearer.