Bitcoin’s recent wave of whale selling has stirred debate across the market, but analysts see little evidence of a sharp exit. On-chain researchers at Glassnode said the pattern reflects typical late cycle behavior, where long-term investors rotate profits as momentum cools.
A wallet identified as belonging to trader Owen Gunden moved 2,400 Bitcoin to Kraken on Thursday according to Arkham. The transfer, worth about 237 million dollars, added to a series of large holder outflows that have caught market attention in recent weeks.
Glassnode data indicates that long-term holders are increasing daily outflows from roughly 12,000 Bitcoin in early July to nearly 26,000 as of this week. The firm said the trend shows steady distribution across older cohorts, suggesting structured profit taking rather than a sudden retreat by large holders.
Analysts see signs of a late but not exhausted cycle
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu described the activity as a normal shift in positioning that fits with late cycle conditions. He said liquidity remains healthy enough to absorb new supply as long as buyers continue to step in.
Liu noted that the environment is influenced by changing macro expectations. Fewer bets on near term rate cuts and softer market momentum have slowed upside potential. Even so, he said on-chain readings point to a possible short term bottom forming, although more indicators must align to confirm it.
Market sentiment has weakened since early autumn as investors weigh economic uncertainty. Some traders have moved toward assets with clearer links to policy and credit cycles. This shift has added pressure to risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Charlie Sherry, head of finance at Australian exchange BTC Markets, said whale selling alone is not unusual. The concern, he added, is a thinner layer of buy side support compared with earlier in the year. He believes it is still unclear whether the market has reached a peak, although he considers the timing plausible.
Historical cycle analysis shows that Bitcoin tops have often appeared at roughly four year intervals. Sherry pointed to the October 2025 all time high that came about 1,050 days after the previous bottom, which fits earlier rhythms. However, he cautioned that the sample size remains small and new demand forces may weaken the pattern.
Institutional buyers such as ETF issuers and corporate treasuries do not trade according to cycle lore. Their recent appetite has softened, but Sherry said it could return quickly under the right conditions. He added that the durability of Bitcoin’s fundamental demand will likely determine whether this cycle follows the old script or diverges again.
The current phase appears to show a cooling market, not a panicked exit. Analysts agree that continued liquidity and buyer participation will shape the next steps for Bitcoin as the cycle matures.